Expected value (EV) is the average outcome of a repeated decision. In sports betting, positive EV bets profit over time; negative EV bets drain your bankroll.
Expected value (EV) is the average outcome of a decision repeated many times. A bet with positive expected value (+EV) profits in the long run. A bet with negative expected value (-EV) loses money over time, even if any single bet might win.
EV = (Probability of winning × Amount won) − (Probability of losing × Amount lost)
If the result is positive, the bet is +EV. If negative, it's -EV.
A coin flip: heads you win $2, tails you lose $1.
EV = (50% × $2) − (50% × $1) = $1.00 − $0.50 = +$0.50 per flip
Flip 100 times and you'd expect to profit $50, even though any individual flip could go either way.
Most standard sportsbook bets (at -110 each side) are -EV. The vig ensures you need to win 52.4% of bets just to break even at those odds.
+EV bets in sports betting come from:
The powerful thing about a properly structured hedge: the EV is positive regardless of the true probability of either outcome. When both possible outcomes pay a profit, you don't need to estimate anything. The EV is guaranteed — not estimated.
This is what separates bonus bet hedging from standard +EV betting: no probability model required.
For the full expected value framework, read our guide to expected value in sports betting.
This is part of our complete guide. Read the full breakdown for the complete strategy.
Read: Expected Value in Sports Betting: The Full Guide →